Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi may have to felt satisfied with the 3rd position for Gujarat in the GSDP(Gross State Domestic Product) growth projected by the country’s apex finance panel-13th Finance Commission for next five years(from 2010-11 to 2014-15) in the country after Goa(in the first position) and Orissa(2nd position).
The panel has projected that Gujarat’s GSDP will grow in next five years at average 12.46%(projection based on the base year 2007-08) while the highest growth has been projected for Goa(13.06%) and Orisssa(12.63%). While others states to grow at 12% plus are Haryana(12.30%) and Chattisgarh(12.28%). The other states which are projected to grow at 11% plus are Jharkhand(11.5%), Assam(11.32%) and Meghalaya(11.9%).
States with 10% plus growth projections are Karnatka(10.53%), Rajasthan(10.33%), Kerala and Himachal Pradesh(10.30%), Jammu & Kashmir(10.25%), Uttrakhand(10.17%) West Bengal(10.04%) and Andhra Pradesh(10.03%). Maharashtra, Taminadu and others state are expected to grow at 9% or below that.
Though projections have been made for Gujarat in top three GSDP growth states but the incremental growth(year to year improvement) rate has been projected as one of the lowest. For the same period incremental growth of Gujarat has been projected at 2.04% while for Maharashtra, West Bengal, Andhra Pradesh, Punjab, Kerala and Uttar Pradesh its has been projected at 4.57, 4.46, 4.47, 4.24, 4.20 and UP 4.01% respectively.
A very senior state government official who was associated with the preparation of the state memorandum for the finance commission told that,“Gujarat is expected to grow at more then the projection of 12.46%, even if we consider 6 to 7% inflation we will grow by around 18% p.a. which will probably highest in the country.’’
The source further told that,“Gujarat’s economy has now crossed Rs.4 lakh crore size while the economy of other growing state are very small in size compare to Gujarat so the scope of higher growth in terms of percentage will be higher however compare to Gujarat’s stable 12% plus will fuel high growth of state’s economy. Like USA and other bigger economy there size are 15 times bigger then many other economy so naturally the scope of high growth will be less still there will be sizable growth in terms of value.
Gujarat’s growth in comparison large economy state(like Maharashtra, Tamilnadu, Andhra Pradesh) will be higher while other small economy state like Goa, Orissa has agriculture based economy which can fluctuate according to the monsoon while Gujarat’s economy is mix of manufacturing, service sector and agriculture so compare to other state Gujarat will achieve more stable growth in next five years even better then projected by the finance panel. The panel itself has projected year wise GSDP growth of Gujarat during 2010-11, 11-12, 13-14 an 14-15 respectively as 13.95 , 14.25 and 14.50% in last three years which is quiet impressive and highest in the country.’’